If the monsoon demonstrated the effects of climate change, what are the consequences? And, more importantly, how will it affect business and investment?
This July saw parts of Japan facing rains and floods. These took the lives of 200 people and destroyed 10,000 houses. A heat wave followed, hampering the rescue efforts in that region. In the same period, other parts of the world were also in the throes of a heat wave. It caused power outages in California, wildfires in Northern Russia (which are expected to destroy 80,000 hectares of forest), and Europe is expecting losses in harvest.
If you asked me whether this was caused by climate change, I wouldn’t hazard a guess. What I do know and what old timers have corroborated is that this time around, the monsoon in Goa was peculiar. There were fewer spells of long showers. Short powerful bursts of rain combined with high winds filled this season. Days that began bright and sunny would become ominously cloudy in a matter of minutes, strong gusts of wind would follow; these heralded heavy showers. However, they would turn out to be brief episodes. It was as if this season was undecided about its role. I have seen Candolim beach quartered into small sections. Each section of the beach protected by what can only be described as a sandy moat running into the sea. Local newspapers blame drainage and the rains for it.
The only thing consistent about the monsoons in Goa was the condition of the roads at this time of the year.
If it is climate change, then what?
Many will debate, till the cows come home, whether these weather events are consequences of a changing climate. According to the World Meteorological Organisation’s (WMO) annual State of the Climate Report, 2017 was the costliest hurricane season on record, approximately 30% of the world’s population faced extreme heat waves; 41 million were affected by floods in South Asia. These disasters cost the world USD 320 billion. In the report, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said, “In the past quarter of a century, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide have risen from 360 parts per million to more than 400 ppm. They will remain above that level for generations to come, committing our planet to a warmer future, with more weather, climate and water extremes.”
According to the 2018 Economic Survey brought out by the Government of India, “Climate change – whose imprint on Indian agriculture is already visible – might reduce farm incomes by up to 20-25 percent in the medium term.” Studying primary weather data from previous years, the Economic Survey concludes that the results are ‘suggestive of a rise in the number of days with extremely high temperatures, and a corresponding decline in the number of days with low temperatures’. In the case of the monsoons, it states, “The proportion of dry days (rainfall less than 0.1 mm per day) as well as wet days (rainfall greater than 80 mm per day) has increased steadily over time. Thus, the imprint of climate change is clearly manifest in the increasing frequency of extreme weather outcomes.’
These observations raise many questions. Some which immediately come to mind are – will farmers and their families migrate to cities? How will food security be impacted by climate change? What impact will this surge have on urban infrastructure? There are no answers as yet because climate vagaries and their impacts are so broad. For example, recent studies in US and Mexico indicate a correlation between rising heat and increasing rates of suicide.
Is the issue just climate change?
Therefore, the issue is not one of just climate change, changing weather patterns and the consequent environmental fallouts. It is the social and economic consequences and their impact on society as we know it that should have us worried.
A World Bank report suggests climate change would cost India 2.5% of her GDP by 2050 and lower the living standards of half of the Indian population.
According to the CIA, the world has 356,000 kilometres of coastline. While, according to NASA, it is 620,000 kilometres. NASA also states that 2.4 billion live within 100 kilometres of an oceanic coast. The US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says that ‘sea level is rising at an increasing rate’. The organisation goes on to say that the rise is one-eighth of an inch per year. In the last 50 years, coastal communities in the US have seen an increase between 300 and 900 percent in the frequency of ‘nuisance flooding’.
Many island countries like Maldives and Vanuatu are facing a watery grave.
In India, there has been much concern about Sagar Island near Kolkata where the sea has been gaining ground. Environment Minister Harsh Vardhan, quoting a 2016 UNEP report, said that by 2050, 40 million people will be at risk because of sea level rise.
A lot of infrastructure, on which billions have been spent, will be under threat from sea level rise. NASA has forecast that the port cities of Kakinada, Mangalore and Mumbai will be impacted by sea-level rise over the next 100 years.
Given these predictions and the fluctuating weather patterns, one needs to determine what and where one invests in. For example, how effective will coal fired thermal plants be if there is going to be water scarcity in the future? Or for that matter, should governments dilute the CRZ? Is it sound business sense to invest and build close to the sea to get a scintillating panoramic view?
That 40 million people are under threat from sea level rise in India should be warning enough for new investors. Effort should be made to protect these people and their livelihood. The question that needs to be asked is – should one increase the number of potential victims of sea level rise?
There is need for adaptation, mitigation and resilience measures instead of ventures and laws that increase our vulnerability. Having said that, it does not mean that businesses need to suffer especially if they are willing to adapt. According to IIM Ahmedabad, IIT Gandhinagar and the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), India spent USD 91.8 billion on climate adaptation efforts and will need to reach 360 billion by 2030.
Do we wish to follow the safe and narrow path, fighting for a slice of the profits from a diminishing pie while also increasing the risk to others? Or do we, like Robert Frost in his poem Road Not Taken, choose a different path and look back and say –
‘I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference’. (Difference to self and others)
