Sunil Dias explains the impact that superstitions can have on one’s business and being careful about attributing one’s success to superstition alone.
It’s hard not to spot a pigeon in an Indian city these days. Over the last few decades, their population has skyrocketed. They share with humans a love for urban spaces. But other than a love for the city-life, there’s something else that pigeons have in common with humans. They’re quite superstitious as proved by experiments by the psychologist B.F. Skinner. He placed a pigeon inside a box. At random intervals, food was dispensed through a slot in the box. More than three-fourths of the pigeons developed superstitions on what got them food. One pigeon started believing that it would get food if it turned anti-clockwise twice. Another pigeon believed that moving its head in a pendulum movement did the trick. Yet another linked getting food to a regular nodding movement. Each pigeon associated some movement of theirs with getting food. They assumed causality where there was none. They became superstitious.
We humans are much more intelligent than that, isn’t it? Well, for the most part. Sure, we have some innocuous superstitions in our personal lives. The slight nerves when we know its Friday the 13th. Or avoiding crossing the path of a black cat. What about business? That’s someplace where we would like to believe that we are quite rational. Free from superstitions. Other than hanging lemons and chillies, it’s not very common to see superstitions in business. Or is it? Actually, business leaders have a fair amount of superstitions. We just don’t call it that. For this article, superstition is defined as a belief that is not based on verifiable facts. Where causality is not established.
At its simplest, a superstition can be a lucky charm. A lucky pair of socks for important meetings. But it can go beyond that. Signing contracts only at a specific day or time. Or skipping a floor in your corporate headquarters, like G.D. Birla did. When the Birla empire headquarters were being built, he chose not to have a 12th floor. It reminded him of ‘baarvi’–the 12th day of mourning in Hindus. Having lucky and unlucky numbers is a global thing. More than 80% of the high-rise buildings in the world don’t have a 13th floor. Many airlines don’t have a 13th row. And Lufthansa doesn’t have both a 13th and a 17th row. The number 17 is unlucky in Italy and Brazil.
Superstition can have a much larger impact. For instance, eclipses and stock market indices have significant correlation. A Copenhagen Business School researcher studied 362 solar and lunar eclipses between 1928 and 2008. He found that in the 3 days before an eclipse, 3 of the 4 US stock market indices gave below average returns. If it was a more spectacular eclipse with wide news coverage, the returns were even lower. Post-eclipse the market got back to normal returns. The difference over time can be significant. An investor who bought the Dow Jones Index in 1928, would have multiplied money 37 times over the period. An investor who sold the index just before the eclipse and bought back after the dip? He would have multiplied money 55 times!
What causes superstition? It’s our brain’s desire to find connections and reason for everything. Even where there are none. Some of these correlations are internal to us. For instance, correlation between us wearing those lucky socks and a successful negotiation. Other superstitions are based on what we hear others say or what strikes awe in us. For instance, the association of the number 13 and bad luck is all around us. An eclipse can still awe us. Whatever they’re based on, social scientists agree that superstitions are irrational.
Superstitions aren’t limited to lucky charms, omens or actions. We can also be superstitious about our behaviours. “I behave this way, and I achieve results. Therefore, I must be achieving results because I behave this way. This belief is sometimes true but not across the board. That’s where superstition kicks in.” says Marshall Goldsmith in his book, What Got You Here Won’t Get You There. For instance, say you often give your star performer a mouthful. You might think there is a causality between the ‘mouthfuls’ and his great performance. That isn’t necessarily true. There may be no causality. And it’s likely to be counter-productive when tried with many employees.
Are superstitions good?
To check whether superstitions improve results, a researcher designed a unique experiment. He got subjects to test their golfing skills through 10 putts. He told some subjects that the ball they were given was a ‘lucky’ one. He told others that the ball they were given was the same as given to everyone else. Those that got the ‘lucky’ balls holed several more putts than the others. Just believing that they had a lucky ball improved their performance.
So, superstitions can improve results. They can drive confidence and optimism. That said, be careful with what you are superstitious about. It’s easy to accumulate a whole lot of superstitions. And that can cause paralysis due to too many things to consider. Also, be careful about attributing all success to following a superstition. That way you will never know the other factors contributing to your success. You should know, for instance, the reasons why your business grew. Other than the fact that you wore your navy-blue striped shirt for all key meetings. As Goldsmith says, ‘What got you here, won’t get you there’.
Closing thoughts
Most of us have at least a couple of superstitions. And subject to a few caveats, superstitions help our confidence and optimism. Yet, a superstition works only till it’s believed in. It’s the belief in the power of superstitions that makes it effective. Self-belief can disappear once we realize that magical thinking does not influence results. So, if you have a belief, you just can’t explain but it brings your business success, don’t try too hard to analyse it. Over-analysing a superstition is a sure way to stop it being effective!
